MeritValue

Hayward Holdings, Inc.

HAYWdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hayward Holdings, Inc. earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $7.07 and $13.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.4B1$1.31B2$992.5M3$1.05B3$1.12B3
Net income$203.7M4$179.3M5$80.7M6$118.7M6$151.6M6
Operating cash flow$189.4M7$115.9M8$184.5M9$212.1M9$256M9
Capital expenditure$26.2M10$29.6M11$28.9M12$22.4M12$28.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$163.2M7$86.3M8$155.6M9$189.7M9$227.3M9
Total debt$995M13$1.11B14$1.11B15$971.5M16$959.8M17
Cash & equivalents$265.8M18$56.2M19$178.1M20$196.6M21$329.6M21
Diluted shares200.6M229.7M220.7M221.4M222.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$43.19

10 shares is a claim on $71.68 of net worth that earned you $6.82 and generated $10.23 of cash last year, against $43.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 8%FY23 3%FY24 8%FY25 9%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $7.07 and $13.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$189.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.41
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$189.7M
Earnings Power Value
$7.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$151.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$10.47
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.41
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.36
Base5.2%$12.41
Bull10.2%$15.96

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834622-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834622-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834622-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834622-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834622-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834622-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834622-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834622-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834622-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834622-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834622-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834622-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834622-22-000024 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834622-23-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834622-24-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001834622-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001834622-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001834622-23-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001834622-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001834622-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001834622-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)