MeritValue

HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc.

HASIdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital, Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 58% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $11.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$213.2M1$239.7M2$319.9M3$383.6M3$400.5M3
Net income$126.6M4$41.5M5$148.8M6$200M6$184.5M6
Operating cash flow$13.3M7$230,0008$99.7M9$5.85M9$167.3M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$480.1M10$433.2M10$30.2M11$100.1M12$225.2M12
Cash & equivalents$226.2M13$155.7M14$62.6M15$129.8M16$110.2M16
Diluted shares87.7M90.6M109.5M130.5M138.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$192.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$13.36
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.3

10 shares is a claim on $192.34 of net worth that earned you $13.36 last year, against $16.3 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 7%FY23 14%FY24 16%FY25 14%

It earned an average 13% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+58% shares · 5y

Share count is up 58% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 53% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$11.16
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$148.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$24.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561894-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561894-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561894-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561894-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561894-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561894-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561894-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561894-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561894-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561894-23-000012 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561894-25-000007 (CommercialPaper)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001561894-26-000007 (CommercialPaper)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001561894-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001561894-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001561894-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001561894-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)