MeritValue

HASBRO, INC.

HASdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HASBRO, INC. earns about -2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.04 and $75.6 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$6.42B1$5.86B2$5B3$4.14B3$4.7B3
Net income$428.7M4$203.5M5−$1.49B6$385.6M6−$322.4M6
Operating cash flow$817.9M7$372.9M8$725.6M9$847.4M9$893.2M9
Capital expenditure$132.7M10$128.2M11$135.5M12$87.2M12$63.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$685.2M7$244.7M8$590.1M9$760.2M9$829.9M9
Total debt$4.03B13$3.97B14$3.47B15$3.38B16$3.26B16
Cash & equivalents$1.02B17$513.1M18$545.4M18$695M18$776.6M18
Diluted shares138.4M138.9M138.8M140.3M140.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$40.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$23
Free cash flow it threw off
$59.19
Debt you’d be carrying
$232.87

10 shares is a claim on $40.34 of net worth that earned you −$23 and generated $59.19 of cash last year, against $232.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 5%FY23 -30%FY24 10%FY25 -3%

It earned about -2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 19% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.04 and $75.6 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$75.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.5%
  • fcfBase$760.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.5%
  • fcfBase$760.2M
Earnings Power Value
$15.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$203.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$59.72
Base3.5%$72.58
Bull8.5%$93.87

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000046080-24-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000046080-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000046080-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000046080-24-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000046080-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000046080-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000046080-24-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000046080-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000046080-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000046080-24-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000046080-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000046080-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000046080-23-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000046080-24-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000046080-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0000046080-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-26 · accession 0000046080-25-000027 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-25 · accession 0000046080-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)