MeritValue

Happen, Inc.

HAPNdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Happen, Inc. earns about 201% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 15% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $4.54 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$292.8M1$557.3M2$832.6M3$908M3$961.5M3
Net income$18.6M4$289.7M5$38.9M6$51.3M6$135.7M6
Operating cash flow$239.9M7$375.6M8−$1.14B9−$2.63B9−$2.73B9
Capital expenditure$34.4M10$69.5M11$59.5M12$54.3M12$140.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$205.5M7$306.1M8−$1.2B9−$2.69B9−$2.87B9
Total debt$27.8M13$2.62M13$19.4M14$015$015
Cash & equivalents$763.6M16$1.12B17$1.29B17$977.4M17$930.4M17
Diluted shares102.1M104.0M108.5M113.1M117.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.57
Free cash flow it threw off
−$244.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $127.99 of net worth that earned you $11.57 and generated −$244.58 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
201% avg · 5y
FY21 86%FY22 555%FY23 —FY24 95%FY25 69%

It earned an average 201% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+15% shares · 5y

Share count is up 15% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$4.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$51.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001409970-24-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001409970-25-000009 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409970-26-000018 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001409970-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001409970-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409970-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001409970-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001409970-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409970-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001409970-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001409970-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409970-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001409970-23-000012 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409970-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001409970-26-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001409970-25-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001409970-26-000018 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)