MeritValue

HALLIBURTON CO

HALdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

HALLIBURTON CO earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.1 and $131.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$15.3B1$20.3B2$23B3$22.9B3$22.2B3
Net income$1.46B4$1.57B5$2.64B6$2.5B6$1.28B6
Operating cash flow$1.91B7$2.24B8$3.46B9$3.87B9$2.93B9
Capital expenditure$799M10$1.01B11$1.38B12$1.44B12$1.25B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.11B7$1.23B8$2.08B9$2.42B9$1.67B9
Total debt$9.15B13$7.93B13$7.64B14$15.1B15$14.3B15
Cash & equivalents$3.04B16$2.35B17$2.26B18$2.62B19$2.21B19
Diluted shares892.0M908.0M902.0M883.0M853.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$122.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.04
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.6
Debt you’d be carrying
$167.83

10 shares is a claim on $122.64 of net worth that earned you $15.04 and generated $19.6 of cash last year, against $167.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 18%FY24 11%FY25 6%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 57% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.1 and $131.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$131.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.08B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$65.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$2.08B
Earnings Power Value
$19.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.57B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $65.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.63
Base20.0%$65.27
Bull20.0%$65.27

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000045012-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000045012-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000045012-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000045012-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000045012-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000045012-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000045012-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000045012-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000045012-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000045012-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000045012-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000045012-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000045012-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000045012-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000045012-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000045012-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000045012-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000045012-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000045012-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)