Hafnia Ltd

HAFNdata completeness 100%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Hafnia Ltd earns about 31% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 3 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.95 and $31.88 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue$1.93B1$2.67B1$2.87B1
Net income$751.6M2$793.3M2$774M2
Operating cash flow$770.9M3$1.06B3$1.03B3
Capital expenditure$447.1M4$184.4M4$49.6M4
Free cash flow (derived)$323.8M3$876.4M3$980.8M3
Total debt$1.29B5$1.12B5
Cash & equivalents$280.3M6$222.5M6$283.6M6
Diluted shares477.9M505.1M502.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$44.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$22.31

10 shares is a claim on $44.99 of net worth that earned you $15.39 and generated $19.5 of cash last year, against $22.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
31% avg · 3y
FY22 43%FY23 24%FY24 25%

It earned about 31% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 3y

Share count is up 5% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.95 and $31.88 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$876.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$29.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$876.4M
Earnings Power Value
$15.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$774M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$12.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $29.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$23.23
Base5.0%$29.26
Bull10.0%$36.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-016487 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-016487 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-016487 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-016487 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-016487 (Borrowings)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-016487 (CashAndCashEquivalents)