MeritValue

Hyatt Hotels Corp

Hdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Hyatt Hotels Corp earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.87 and $252.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.03B1$5.89B2$6.67B3$6.65B3$7.1B3
Net income−$222M4$455M5$220M6$1.3B6−$52M6
Operating cash flow$315M7$674M8$800M9$633M9$379M9
Capital expenditure$111M10$201M11$198M12$170M12$220M12
Free cash flow (derived)$204M7$473M8$602M9$463M9$159M9
Total debt$3.97B13$2.45B14$2.31B15$3.33B16$4.27B16
Cash & equivalents$960M17$991M18$881M19$1.01B19$787M19
Diluted shares104.0M111.3M107.7M102.4M95.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$349.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$447.31

10 shares is a claim on $349.1 of net worth that earned you −$5.44 and generated $16.65 of cash last year, against $447.31 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 10%FY23 6%FY24 22%FY25 1%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.87 and $252.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$252.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$463M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$121.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$463M
Earnings Power Value
$23.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$220M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $121.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.78
Base20.0%$121.57
Bull20.0%$121.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468174-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468174-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468174-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468174-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468174-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468174-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468174-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468174-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468174-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468174-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468174-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468174-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468174-23-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468174-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468174-25-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001468174-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001468174-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001468174-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001468174-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)