GXO Logistics, Inc.
GXOdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
GXO Logistics, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.63 and $30.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $7.94B1 | $8.99B2 | $9.78B3 | $11.7B3 | $13.2B3 |
| Net income | $153M4 | $197M5 | $229M6 | $134M6 | $32M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $455M7 | $542M8 | $558M9 | $549M9 | $434M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $250M10 | $342M11 | $274M12 | $359M12 | $324M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $205M7 | $200M8 | $284M9 | $190M9 | $110M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $333M13 | $495M14 | $468M15 | $413M15 | $854M15 |
| Diluted shares | 115.6M | 117.6M | 119.5M | 119.8M | 116.3M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $256.49 of net worth that earned you $2.75 and generated $9.46 of cash last year.
It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.63 and $30.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$190M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$190M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$153M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $30.68 |
| Base | 0.0% | $30.68 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $36.33 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001852244-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001852244-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001852244-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001852244-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001852244-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001852244-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001852244-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001852244-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001852244-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001852244-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001852244-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001852244-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001852244-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001852244-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001852244-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)