MeritValue

Global Water Resources, Inc.

GWRSdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Global Water Resources, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $2.11 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$41.9M1$44.7M2$53M3$52.7M4$55.8M4
Net income$3.61M5$5.51M6$7.98M7$5.79M8$2.96M8
Operating cash flow$20.4M9$23.3M10$25.4M11$21.8M12$20.2M12
Capital expenditure$18.3M13$34M14$22.3M15$32.3M16$67.3M16
Free cash flow (derived)$2.14M9−$10.6M10$3.08M11−$10.5M12−$47.2M12
Total debt$225.7M17$217.6M18$210.9M19$244.9M20$267.4M20
Cash & equivalents$12.6M21$6.56M22$3.09M23$9.05M24$4.08M24
Diluted shares22.9M23.3M24.1M24.3M27.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$31.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$17.41
Debt you’d be carrying
$98.76

10 shares is a claim on $31.99 of net worth that earned you $1.09 and generated −$17.41 of cash last year, against $98.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 4%FY25 2%

It earned an average 3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 5y

Share count is up 18% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 19% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$2.11
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$5.51M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434728-23-000086 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434728-24-000087 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434728-25-000079 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014659 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434728-23-000086 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434728-24-000087 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434728-25-000079 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014659 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434728-23-000086 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434728-24-000087 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434728-25-000079 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014659 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434728-23-000086 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434728-24-000087 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434728-25-000079 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014659 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434728-23-000086 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434728-24-000087 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434728-25-000079 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014659 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001434728-23-000086 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001434728-24-000087 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001434728-25-000079 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-014659 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)