MeritValue

FRACTYL HEALTH, INC.

GUTSdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

FRACTYL HEALTH, INC. earns about -866% on equity, but has diluted owners by 3543% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$120,0001$93,0002$02
Net income−$77.1M3−$68.7M4−$141M4
Operating cash flow−$42.8M5−$65.5M6−$90.3M6
Capital expenditure$359,0007$1.77M8$557,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$43.2M5−$67.3M6−$90.9M6
Total debt———
Cash & equivalents$33.2M9$67.5M10$81.5M10
Diluted shares2.1M43.5M75.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.59
Free cash flow it threw off
−$11.99
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $1.25 of net worth that earned you −$18.59 and generated −$11.99 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-866% avg · 3y
FY23 —FY24 -242%FY25 -1490%

It earned an average -866% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3543% shares · 3y

Share count is up 3543% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030807 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-121793 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030807 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-121793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030807 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-121793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030807 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-121793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-030807 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-121793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)