MeritValue

Garrett Motion Inc.

GTXdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Garrett Motion Inc. earns about 52% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 36% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.78 and $26.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.63B1$3.6B2$3.89B3$3.48B3$3.58B3
Net income$495M4$390M5$261M6$282M6$310M6
Operating cash flow−$310M7$375M8$465M9$408M9$413M9
Capital expenditure$72M10$91M11$83M12$91M12$72M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$382M7$284M8$382M9$317M9$341M9
Total debt$2.38B13$1.16B14$1.65B15$1.47B16$1.42B16
Cash & equivalents$423M17$246M18$259M19$125M20$177M20
Diluted shares317.5M65.1M166.6M224.1M203.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$39.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.22
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$69.64

10 shares is a claim on −$39.39 of net worth that earned you $15.22 and generated $16.75 of cash last year, against $69.64 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
52% avg · 5y
FY21 38%FY22 50%FY23 58%FY24 42%FY25 71%

It earned about 52% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−36% shares · 5y

Share count is down 36% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.78 and $26.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$26.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$341M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$23.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$341M
Earnings Power Value
$15.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$310M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $23.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.83
Base5.0%$23.62
Bull10.0%$30.55

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001735707-24-000012 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001735707-25-000013 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001735707-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001735707-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001735707-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001735707-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001735707-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001735707-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001735707-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001735707-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001735707-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001735707-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001735707-23-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001735707-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001735707-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001735707-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001735707-23-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001735707-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001735707-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001735707-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)