MeritValue

CHART INDUSTRIES INC

GTLSdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CHART INDUSTRIES INC earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 10% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.8 and $115.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.32B1$1.61B2$3.35B3$4.16B3$4.26B3
Net income$59.1M4$24M4$47.3M4$218.5M4$40.7M4
Operating cash flow−$21.3M5$80.8M6$167.2M7$503M7$292.7M7
Capital expenditure$52.7M8$74.2M9$135.6M10$120.8M10$89.9M10
Free cash flow (derived)−$74M5$6.6M6$31.6M7$382.2M7$202.8M7
Total debt$1.72B11$4.63B12$7.8B13$7.4B14$7.22B14
Cash & equivalents$122.2M15$663.6M16$188.3M17$308.6M18$366M18
Diluted shares41.1M41.8M46.8M46.7M45.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$711.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.7
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,591.71

10 shares is a claim on $711.99 of net worth that earned you $8.97 and generated $44.7 of cash last year, against $1,591.71 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 2%FY23 3%FY24 2%FY25 0%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+10% shares · 5y

Share count is up 10% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 321% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.8 and $115.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$115.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$202.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$202.8M
Earnings Power Value
$10.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$47.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$21.92
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000892553-24-000067 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000892553-25-000039 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000892553-26-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000892553-26-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000892553-24-000067 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000892553-25-000039 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000892553-26-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000892553-24-000067 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000892553-25-000039 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000892553-26-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000892553-23-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000892553-24-000067 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000892553-25-000039 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000892553-26-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000892553-23-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000892553-24-000067 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000892553-25-000039 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000892553-26-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)