Good Times Restaurants Inc.
GTIMdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileGood Times Restaurants Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.56 and $2.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $124M1 | $138.2M2 | $138.2M3 | $142.4M4 | $141.6M4 |
| Net income | $16.8M5 | −$2.64M6 | $11.1M7 | $1.61M8 | $1.02M8 |
| Operating cash flow | $9.15M9 | $5.29M10 | $7.97M11 | $5.13M12 | $1.61M12 |
| Capital expenditure | $3.2M13 | $2.64M14 | $4.77M15 | $3.14M16 | $3.07M16 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $5.95M9 | $2.65M10 | $3.19M11 | $1.99M12 | −$1.45M12 |
| Total debt | — | $017 | $750,00018 | $872,00019 | $2.34M19 |
| Cash & equivalents | $8.86M20 | $8.91M21 | $4.18M22 | $3.85M22 | $2.61M23 |
| Diluted shares | 12.8M | 12.5M | 11.8M | 11.1M | 10.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $30.89 of net worth that earned you $0.96 and generated −$1.36 of cash last year, against $2.19 of debt.
It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.56 and $2.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$1.99M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$1.99M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$1.61M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $2.68 |
| Base | 0.0% | $2.68 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $3.32 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)