Good Times Restaurants Inc.

GTIMdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Good Times Restaurants Inc. earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.56 and $2.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$124M1$138.2M2$138.2M3$142.4M4$141.6M4
Net income$16.8M5−$2.64M6$11.1M7$1.61M8$1.02M8
Operating cash flow$9.15M9$5.29M10$7.97M11$5.13M12$1.61M12
Capital expenditure$3.2M13$2.64M14$4.77M15$3.14M16$3.07M16
Free cash flow (derived)$5.95M9$2.65M10$3.19M11$1.99M12−$1.45M12
Total debt$017$750,00018$872,00019$2.34M19
Cash & equivalents$8.86M20$8.91M21$4.18M22$3.85M22$2.61M23
Diluted shares12.8M12.5M11.8M11.1M10.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$30.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.96
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$2.19

10 shares is a claim on $30.89 of net worth that earned you $0.96 and generated −$1.36 of cash last year, against $2.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 89%FY22 -4%FY23 3%FY24 5%FY25 1%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.56 and $2.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$2.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.99M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.99M
Earnings Power Value
$1.56
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.61M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.68
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.68
Base0.0%$2.68
Bull5.0%$3.32

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-24 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-28 · accession 0001214659-22-014979 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-27 · accession 0001437749-23-034439 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-26 · accession 0001214659-24-020434 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001214659-25-018518 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)