MeritValue

Gates Industrial Corp plc

GTESdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gates Industrial Corp plc earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 12% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.26 and $61.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.47B1$3.55B2$3.57B3$3.41B3$3.44B3
Net income$297.1M4$220.8M5$232.9M6$194.9M6$251.4M6
Operating cash flow$382.4M7$265.8M8$481M9$379.6M9$478.1M9
Capital expenditure$77.7M10$77.6M11$61.2M12$83.1M12$73.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$304.7M7$188.2M8$419.8M9$296.5M9$404.9M9
Total debt$5.13B13$4.93B14$4.9B15$4.7B16$4.47B16
Cash & equivalents$658.2M17$578.4M18$720.6M19$682M20$812.1M20
Diluted shares297.3M287.6M275.6M264.7M260.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$127.97
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.65
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$171.38

10 shares is a claim on $127.97 of net worth that earned you $9.65 and generated $15.54 of cash last year, against $171.38 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY22 6%FY22 5%FY23 5%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−12% shares · 5y

Share count is down 12% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 13% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.26 and $61.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$61.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.3%
  • fcfBase$404.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.3%
  • fcfBase$404.9M
Earnings Power Value
$9.26
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$232.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.62
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.18
Base17.3%$31.62
Bull20.0%$36.65

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001718512-24-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001718512-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-007719 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001718512-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001718512-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-007719 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001718512-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001718512-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-007719 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001718512-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001718512-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001628280-26-007719 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001718512-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001718512-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001718512-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-007719 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001718512-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001718512-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001718512-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001628280-26-007719 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)