Greenland Technologies Holding Corp.
GTECdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on fileGreenland Technologies Holding Corp. earns about 0% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 49% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.17 and $14.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $98.8M1 | $90.8M1 | $90.3M2 | $83.9M3 | $90.7M3 |
| Net income | $6.27M4 | $745,5534 | −$15.9M5 | $14.1M6 | $4.93M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$5.76M7 | $7.31M7 | $2.45M8 | $13.3M9 | $15.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | — | — | $735,49810 | $1.96M11 | $525,71811 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | — | — | $1.71M8 | $11.4M9 | $15.1M9 |
| Total debt | $9.16M12 | $8.99M13 | $3.04M14 | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $11.1M15 | $16.3M15 | $23M16 | $6.66M17 | $7.78M17 |
| Diluted shares | 10.8M | 11.9M | 13.2M | 13.6M | 16.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $45.18 of net worth that earned you $3.05 and generated $9.34 of cash last year.
It earned about 0% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 49% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 67% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.17 and $14.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$11.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$11.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$4.93M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $10.55 |
| Base | 5.0% | $12.99 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $15.9 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033796 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002711 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032928 (Revenues)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033796 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002711 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032928 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033796 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002711 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032928 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002711 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032928 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033796 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033796 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002711 (ShortTermBorrowings)
- 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-033796 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002711 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032928 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)