MeritValue

GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC.

GTEdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. earns about -0% on invested capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$473.7M1$711.4M2$637M3$621.8M3$596.7M3
Net income$42.5M4$139M5−$6.29M6$3.22M6−$193.1M6
Operating cash flow$244.8M7$427.7M8$228M9$239.3M9$313.2M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.31B10$1.18B10$71.2M11$49.6M12$42.4M12
Cash & equivalents$26.1M13$126.9M14$62.1M15$103.4M15$82.9M15
Diluted shares36.8M36.9M33.5M32.0M35.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$64.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$54.5
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$11.97

10 shares is a claim on $64.55 of net worth that earned you −$54.5 last year, against $11.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-0% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 11%FY23 20%FY24 17%FY25 -55%

It earned an average -0% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 97% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.94
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.22M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273441-24-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273441-25-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273441-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273441-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273441-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273441-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273441-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273441-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273441-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273441-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273441-25-000002 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001273441-26-000010 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001273441-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001273441-25-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001273441-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)