MeritValue

Green Thumb Industries Inc.

GTBIFdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Green Thumb Industries Inc. earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.2 and $9.46 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$893.6M1$1.02B2$1.05B3$1.14B4$1.18B4
Net income$75.4M5$12M6$36.3M7$73.1M7$114.2M7
Operating cash flow$132M8$158.6M9$225M10$195.2M10$294.9M10
Capital expenditure$187.9M11$179.5M12$220M13$80.2M13$81.1M13
Free cash flow (derived)−$55.8M8−$20.9M9$4.93M10$115M10$213.9M10
Total debt———$258M14$247.3M15
Cash & equivalents$230.4M16$177.7M17$161.6M18$171.7M18$274.3M18
Diluted shares226.8M238.1M239.8M241.9M236.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$80.44
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.82
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$10.44

10 shares is a claim on $80.44 of net worth that earned you $4.82 and generated $9.03 of cash last year, against $10.44 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 4%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 7%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.2 and $9.46 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.46
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$115M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.73
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$115M
Earnings Power Value
$3.2
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$73.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$9.32
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.73
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.05
Base5.0%$8.73
Bull10.0%$10.74

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005368 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022653 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028273 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071672 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022653 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028273 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071672 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022653 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028273 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071672 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022653 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028273 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071672 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-028273 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071672 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002469 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022653 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-071672 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)