MeritValue

GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO /OH/

GTdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GOODYEAR TIRE & RUBBER CO /OH/ earns about 2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.5B1$20.8B2$20.1B3$18.9B3$18.3B3
Net income$764M4$202M5−$729M6$46M6−$1.72B6
Operating cash flow$1.06B7$521M8$1.03B9$698M9$796M9
Capital expenditure$981M10$1.06B11$1.05B12$1.19B12$826M12
Free cash flow (derived)$81M7−$540M8−$18M9−$490M9−$30M9
Total debt$7.89B13$8.26B14$8.15B15$8.91B16$6.81B16
Cash & equivalents$1.09B17$1.23B18$902M19$810M19$801M19
Diluted shares264.0M286.0M285.0M288.0M288.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$112.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$59.76
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.04
Debt you’d be carrying
$236.35

10 shares is a claim on $112.26 of net worth that earned you −$59.76 and generated −$1.04 of cash last year, against $236.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 4%FY23 -1%FY24 3%FY25 -1%

It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 14% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$1.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$46M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014240 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020763 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006708 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014240 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020763 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006708 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014240 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020763 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006708 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014240 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020763 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006708 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-002558 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014240 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020763 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006708 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-014240 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-020763 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-006708 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)