MeritValue

Ferroglobe PLC

GSMdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Ferroglobe PLC earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.31 and $7.15 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.78B1$2.6B2$1.65B3$1.64B3$1.34B3
Net income−$110.6M4$440.3M5$82.7M6$23.5M6−$170.7M6
Operating cash flow−$1.34M7$405M8$178.4M9$243.3M9$51.5M9
Capital expenditure$27.6M10$52.1M11$83.7M12$76.2M12$61.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$28.9M7$352.9M8$94.7M9$167.1M9−$10.2M9
Total debt$99M13$77.8M14$46.5M15$57.2M16$140M16
Cash & equivalents$114.4M17$317.9M18$136.5M19$133M19$122.8M19
Diluted shares187.3M187.4M187.9M186.6M186.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$31.87
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.14
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.55
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.49

10 shares is a claim on $31.87 of net worth that earned you −$9.14 and generated −$0.55 of cash last year, against $7.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 -28%FY22 110%FY23 15%FY24 4%FY25 -21%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 41% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.31 and $7.15 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.6
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$94.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$7.15
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$94.7M
Earnings Power Value
$1.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$23.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $7.15
The three cases
Bear0.0%$7.15
Base0.0%$7.15
Bull5.0%$8.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-007862 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005495 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034859 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-007862 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005495 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034859 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-007862 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005495 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034859 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-007862 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005495 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034859 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-007504 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-007862 (Borrowings)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005495 (Borrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034859 (Borrowings)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-007862 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-005495 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-034859 (CashAndCashEquivalents)