MeritValue

Global Ship Lease, Inc.

GSLdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

Global Ship Lease, Inc. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $87.86 and $665.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$448M1$645.6M2$674.8M3$711.1M3$766.5M3
Net income$171.5M4$292.9M5$304.5M6$353.6M6$416.5M6
Operating cash flow$248M7$327.5M8$375M9$430.1M9$528.3M9
Capital expenditure$4.61M10$5.46M11$19.6M12$12.8M12$14.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$243.3M7$322M8$355.4M9$417.3M9$514.1M9
Total debt$2.16B13$1.88B14$1.64B15$684.1M16$689.1M16
Cash & equivalents$67.3M17$120.1M18$138.6M19$141.4M20$273.9M20
Diluted shares36.5M36.0M35.2M35.4M35.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$501.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$115.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$143.16
Debt you’d be carrying
$191.89

10 shares is a claim on $501.5 of net worth that earned you $115.96 and generated $143.16 of cash last year, against $191.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 12%FY23 11%FY24 18%FY25 19%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 68% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $87.86 and $665.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$665.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.7%
  • fcfBase$417.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$362.86
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.7%
  • fcfBase$417.3M
Earnings Power Value
$87.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$304.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $362.86
The three cases
Bear0.0%$154.46
Base19.7%$362.86
Bull20.0%$367.28

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014377 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009158 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009637 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014377 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009158 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009637 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014377 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009158 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009637 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014377 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009158 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009637 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-076993 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014377 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009158 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009637 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-076993 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-014377 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-009158 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-009637 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)