MeritValue

Goosehead Insurance, Inc.

GSHDdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Goosehead Insurance, Inc. earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 83% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.85 and $103.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$151.3M1$209.4M2$03$03$365.3M4
Net income$5.4M5$565,0006$14.1M7$30.4M7$27.8M7
Operating cash flow$35.4M8$36M9$50.8M10$71.5M10$91.8M10
Capital expenditure$12.7M11$10.1M12$4.45M13$979,00013$5.67M13
Free cash flow (derived)$22.7M8$25.9M9$46.4M10$70.6M10$86.1M10
Total debt$122.7M14$93.6M15$76.9M16$92.3M17$292.5M17
Cash & equivalents$28.5M18$28.7M19$42M20$54.3M20$34.4M20
Diluted shares20.8M21.8M38.4M38.3M38.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$25.06
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.3
Free cash flow it threw off
$22.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$76.75

10 shares is a claim on −$25.06 of net worth that earned you $7.3 and generated $22.59 of cash last year, against $76.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 7%FY23 47%FY24 57%FY25 27%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+83% shares · 5y

Share count is up 83% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 138% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.85 and $103.68 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$103.68
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$70.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$53.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$70.6M
Earnings Power Value
$3.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $53.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.69
Base20.0%$53.61
Bull20.0%$53.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001726978-24-000018 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001726978-25-000016 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001726978-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001726978-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001726978-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001726978-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001726978-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001726978-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001726978-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001726978-24-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001726978-25-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001726978-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001726978-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001726978-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)