MeritValue

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.

GSBDdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. earns about 8% on equity, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.69 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$192.4M1$55M2$195.9M3$62.9M3$119.3M3
Operating cash flow−$29.9M4$27.4M5$300.7M6$2.46M6$325.7M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.86B7$2.01B8$1.83B9$1.93B10$1.87B10
Cash & equivalents$33.8M11$39.6M12$52.4M12$61.8M12$43.2M12
Diluted shares101.7M102.3M108.3M114.7M115.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$123.12
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.32
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$162.2

10 shares is a claim on $123.12 of net worth that earned you $10.32 last year, against $162.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 4%FY23 12%FY24 4%FY25 8%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$10.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$119.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.89
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022198 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029231 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077458 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022198 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029231 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077458 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004160 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022198 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029231 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077458 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-029231 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-077458 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)