MeritValue

GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC.

GSBCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. earns about 44% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.19 and $115.24 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$198.7M1$227M2$296.8M3$324.7M3$313.7M3
Net income$74.6M4$75.9M5$67.8M6$61.8M6$71M6
Operating cash flow$93.7M7$84.8M8$80.7M9$44.1M9$81.5M9
Capital expenditure$5.74M10$20.1M11$7.3M12$4.92M12$11.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$88M7$64.7M8$73.4M9$39.1M9$70.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$717.3M13$168.5M14$211.3M15$195.8M16$189.6M16
Diluted shares13.7M12.6M12.1M11.8M11.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$555.23
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$61.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$61.15
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $555.23 of net worth that earned you $61.95 and generated $61.15 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
44% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 27%FY23 42%FY24 54%FY25 52%

It earned about 44% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.19 and $115.24 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$115.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.7%
  • fcfBase$70.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$114.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.7%
  • fcfBase$70.1M
Earnings Power Value
$64.19
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$71M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$87.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $114.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$103.91
Base2.7%$114.71
Bull7.7%$138

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000178 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000294 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024659 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000178 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024659 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000178 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024659 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000178 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000294 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024659 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001410578-23-000244 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001410578-24-000178 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001410578-25-000294 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-024659 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)