MeritValue

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC

GSdata completeness 88%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC earns about 12% on equity, and has bought back 11% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $465.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$12.1B1$29B2$68.5B3$81.4B3$80.4B3
Net income$21.6B4$11.3B5$8.52B6$14.3B6$17.2B6
Operating cash flow$6.3B7$8.71B8−$12.6B9−$13.2B9−$45.2B9
Capital expenditure$4.67B10$3.75B11$2.32B12$2.09B12$2.06B12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.63B7$4.96B8−$14.9B9−$15.3B9−$47.2B9
Total debt$6.73B13$62.7B14$77.2B15$69.7B15—
Cash & equivalents$261B16$241.8B17$241.6B18$182.1B19$164.3B19
Diluted shares355.8M358.1M345.8M333.6M317.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3,934.89
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$540.81
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1,486.71
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $3,934.89 of net worth that earned you $540.81 and generated −$1,486.71 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
12% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 10%FY23 7%FY24 12%FY25 14%

It earned an average 12% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−11% shares · 5y

Share count is down 11% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 936% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$465.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$14.3B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$674.06
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000886982-24-000006 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886982-25-000005 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886982-26-000091 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000886982-24-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886982-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886982-26-000091 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000886982-24-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886982-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886982-26-000091 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000886982-24-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886982-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886982-26-000091 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000886982-23-000003 (CommercialPaper)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886982-24-000006 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886982-25-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000886982-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000886982-24-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000886982-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000886982-26-000091 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)