MeritValue

Groupon, Inc.

GRPNdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Groupon, Inc. earns about -964% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 20% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.19 and $9.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$967.1M1$599.1M2$514.9M3$492.6M3$498.4M3
Net income$118.7M4−$237.6M5−$55.4M6−$59M6−$83.5M6
Operating cash flow−$124M7−$136M8−$78M9$55.9M9$64.5M9
Capital expenditure$49.6M10$36.2M11$19.3M12$15.3M12$14.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$173.6M7−$172.2M8−$97.3M9$40.6M9$49.9M9
Total debt$100M13$75M14$42.8M15$492M16$685.7M16
Cash & equivalents$498.7M17$281.3M18$141.6M19$228.8M19$296.1M19
Diluted shares33.5M30.2M31.2M39.2M40.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$10.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$12.38
Debt you’d be carrying
$170.15

10 shares is a claim on −$10.56 of net worth that earned you −$20.72 and generated $12.38 of cash last year, against $170.15 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-964% avg · 5y
FY21 57%FY22 -2804%FY23 —FY24 -145%FY25 —

It earned about -964% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+20% shares · 5y

Share count is up 20% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 586% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.19 and $9.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$40.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$8.19
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$40.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $8.19
The three cases
Bear0.0%$4.71
Base5.0%$8.19
Bull10.0%$12.36

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001490281-24-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001490281-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016429 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001490281-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001490281-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016429 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001490281-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001490281-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016429 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001490281-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001490281-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016429 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001490281-23-000022 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001490281-24-000024 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001490281-25-000005 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016429 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001490281-24-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001490281-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-016429 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)