MeritValue

Brazil Potash Corp.

GROdata completeness 75%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Brazil Potash Corp. earns about -23% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 54% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue————
Net income−$32.6M1−$13.2M2−$46.4M2−$52.2M2
Operating cash flow−$8.22M3−$8.2M4−$11.3M4−$13.2M4
Capital expenditure$13,1295$6,9386$5,2456$22,5326
Free cash flow (derived)−$8.23M3−$8.2M4−$11.3M4−$13.2M4
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$11.8M7$2.45M7$18.9M7$27.8M7
Diluted shares34.9M35.4M38.4M53.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$29.4
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.71
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.46
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $29.4 of net worth that earned you −$9.71 and generated −$2.46 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-23% avg · 4y
FY22 -22%FY23 -8%FY24 -31%FY25 -31%

It earned an average -23% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+54% shares · 4y

Share count is up 54% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$9.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076806 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119937 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076806 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119937 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 20-F/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-076806 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119937 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-119937 (CashAndCashEquivalents)