MeritValue

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc.

GRNTdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Granite Ridge Resources, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$290.2M1$497.4M2$394.1M3$380M3$450.3M3
Net income$108.5M4$262.3M5$81.1M6$18.8M6$24.4M6
Operating cash flow$181.2M7$346.4M8$302.9M9$275.7M9$296.4M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$52.2M10$011$220M12$410M13$767.8M13
Cash & equivalents$12.2M14$51.1M15$10.7M15$9.42M15$14.8M15
Diluted shares132.9M133.1M133.1M130.2M130.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$46.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$1.87
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$58.84

10 shares is a claim on $46.42 of net worth that earned you $1.87 last year, against $58.84 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 43%FY23 10%FY24 2%FY25 2%

It earned an average 16% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 1371% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$6.44
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$81.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001928446-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001928446-25-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001928446-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001928446-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001928446-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001928446-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001928446-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001928446-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001928446-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004735 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001928446-24-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001928446-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001928446-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001928446-25-000010 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001928446-26-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)