MeritValue

Grindr Inc.

GRNDdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Grindr Inc. earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 28% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.05 and $25.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$145.8M1$195M2$259.7M3$344.6M3$439.9M3
Net income$5.06M4$852,0005−$55.8M6−$131M6$94.8M6
Operating cash flow$34.4M7$50.6M8$36.1M9$95M9$141.5M9
Capital expenditure$269,00010$430,00011$509,00012$945,00012$746,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$34.2M7$50.2M8$35.6M9$94M9$140.8M9
Total debt$274.2M13$721.3M14$681.2M15$581.2M16$791.7M16
Cash & equivalents$15.8M17$8.73M18$27.6M19$59.2M19$87M19
Diluted shares152.9M159.2M174.2M175.9M195.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.41
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$7.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$40.56

10 shares is a claim on $2.41 of net worth that earned you $4.85 and generated $7.21 of cash last year, against $40.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -3%FY23 -12%FY24 -24%FY25 13%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+28% shares · 5y

Share count is up 28% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 189% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.05 and $25.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$25.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$94M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$94M
Earnings Power Value
$0.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$852,000
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.27
Base20.0%$12.09
Bull20.0%$12.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820144-23-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820144-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820144-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820144-23-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820144-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820144-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820144-23-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820144-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820144-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820144-23-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820144-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820144-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820144-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820144-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820144-25-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001820144-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001820144-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001820144-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001820144-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)