MeritValue

GARMIN LTD

GRMNdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

GARMIN LTD earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 100197% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $69.02 and $393.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.98B1$4.86B2$5.23B3$6.3B3$7.25B3
Net income$1.08B4$973.6M5$1.29B6$1.41B6$1.66B6
Operating cash flow$1.01B7$788.3M8$1.38B9$1.43B9$1.63B9
Capital expenditure$307.6M10$244.3M11$193.5M12$193.6M12$270.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$704.8M7$544M8$1.18B9$1.24B9$1.36B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.5B13$1.28B14$1.69B15$2.08B16$2.28B16
Diluted shares193,043193.0M192.1M193.3M193.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$463.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$85.94
Free cash flow it threw off
$70.39
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $463.42 of net worth that earned you $85.94 and generated $70.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
23% avg · 5y
FY21 23%FY22 20%FY23 23%FY24 24%FY25 25%

It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+100197% shares · 5y

Share count is up 100197% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $69.02 and $393.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$393.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$220.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.24B
Earnings Power Value
$69.02
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.29B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$94.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $220.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$103.19
Base20.0%$220.39
Bull20.0%$220.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-017559 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022760 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-056028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-017559 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022760 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-056028 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-017559 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022760 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-056028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-24-017559 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022760 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001193125-26-056028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-25 · accession 0000950170-23-003566 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017559 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000950170-25-022760 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001193125-26-056028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)