MeritValue

Grifols SA

GRFSdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Grifols SA earns about 7% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near €2.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024
Revenue€5.34B1€4.93B2€6.06B3€6.59B3€7.21B3
Net income€618.5M4€188.7M5€185M6€42.3M6€156.9M6
Operating cash flow€1.11B7€597M8−€1.43M9€218.7M9€902.2M9
Capital expenditure€280.2M10€247.4M11€283.8M12€224.4M12€232.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)€830.2M7€349.6M8−€285.2M9−€5.75M9€669.6M9
Total debt—€330M13———
Cash & equivalents€579.6M14€2.68B15€549.2M15€529.6M15€979.8M15
Diluted shares685.5M681.6M679.8M679.8M679.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
€86.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
€2.31
Free cash flow it threw off
€9.85
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on €86.57 of net worth that earned you €2.31 and generated €9.85 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY20 16%FY21 8%FY22 5%FY23 3%FY24 5%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
€2.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings€185M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
€6.69
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046470 (Revenue)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049471 (Revenue)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-034245 (Revenue)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046470 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049471 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-034245 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046470 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049471 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-034245 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046470 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-24-049471 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-034245 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-046470 (Borrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001104659-22-053197 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-25-034245 (CashAndCashEquivalents)