MeritValue

GORMAN RUPP CO

GRCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GORMAN RUPP CO earns about 6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.77 and $153.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$378.3M1$521M2$659.5M3$659.7M3$682.4M3
Net income$29.9M4$11.2M5$35M6$40.1M6$53M6
Operating cash flow$45.4M7$13.7M8$98.2M9$69.8M9$106.2M9
Capital expenditure$9.75M10$18M11$20.8M12$14.3M12$17.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$35.7M7−$4.3M8$77.4M9$55.5M9$88.9M9
Total debt$013$873.7M14$808.9M15$733.2M16$615.1M16
Cash & equivalents$125.2M17$6.78M18$30.5M19$24.2M20$35.1M20
Diluted shares26.1M26.1M26.2M26.2M26.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$157.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$20.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$33.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$233.91

10 shares is a claim on $157.72 of net worth that earned you $20.16 and generated $33.79 of cash last year, against $233.91 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 2%FY23 6%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned about 6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.77 and $153.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$153.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$73.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$77.4M
Earnings Power Value
$13.77
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $73.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$19.99
Base20.0%$73.9
Bull20.0%$73.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005519 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005856 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-084820 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005519 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005856 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-084820 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005519 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005856 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-084820 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005519 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005856 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-084820 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005782 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005519 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005856 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-084820 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005782 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005519 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-005856 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-084820 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)