MeritValue

Green Brick Partners, Inc.

GRBKdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Green Brick Partners, Inc. earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $68.87 and $276.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.4B1$1.76B2$1.75B3$2.06B3$2.04B3
Net income$190.2M4$291.9M5$284.6M6$381.6M6$313.2M6
Operating cash flow−$92.4M7$90.7M8$213.3M9$25.9M9$213.2M9
Capital expenditure$2.03M10$2.01M11$7.8M12$4.37M12$4.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$94.4M7$88.7M8$205.5M9$21.5M9$208.4M9
Total debt$339.5M13$371.9M14$350.5M15$339.9M16$323.3M17
Cash & equivalents$93.6M18$93.3M19$199.5M19$159.7M19$191M19
Diluted shares51.1M48.0M45.9M44.8M43.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$423.22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.46
Debt you’d be carrying
$73.6

10 shares is a claim on $423.22 of net worth that earned you $71.31 and generated $47.46 of cash last year, against $73.6 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 18%FY22 23%FY23 21%FY24 23%FY25 17%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−14% shares · 5y

Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $68.87 and $276.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$276.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$205.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$149.56
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$205.5M
Earnings Power Value
$68.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$291.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$82.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $149.56
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.85
Base20.0%$149.56
Bull20.0%$149.56

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373670-24-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373670-25-000007 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-033478 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373670-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373670-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-033478 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373670-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373670-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-033478 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373670-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373670-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-033478 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373670-22-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001373670-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001373670-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001373670-25-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K/A · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-033478 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001373670-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-033478 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)