MeritValue

GRAIL, Inc.

GRALdata completeness 88%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GRAIL, Inc. earns about -46% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 18% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$55.6M1$93.1M2$125.6M2$147.2M2
Net income−$5.4B3−$1.47B4−$2.03B4−$408.4M4
Operating cash flow−$561.3M5−$595.8M6−$577.2M6−$299M6
Capital expenditure$22.9M7$12.9M8$5.21M8$909,0008
Free cash flow (derived)−$584.2M5−$608.7M6−$582.4M6−$299.9M6
Total debt————
Cash & equivalents$241.6M9$97.3M10$214.2M10$249.7M10
Diluted shares31.0M31.0M31.9M36.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$701.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$111.1
Free cash flow it threw off
−$81.6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $701.39 of net worth that earned you −$111.1 and generated −$81.6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-46% avg · 4y
FY23 —FY23 —FY24 -75%FY25 -18%

It earned an average -46% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+18% shares · 4y

Share count is up 18% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001699031-25-000041 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017319 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001699031-25-000041 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017319 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001699031-25-000041 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017319 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001699031-25-000041 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017319 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001699031-25-000041 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017319 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)