GeoPark Ltd
GPRKdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'
GeoPark Ltd earns about 23% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 14% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.32 and $23.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $688.5M1 | $1.05B2 | $756.6M3 | $660.8M3 | $492.5M3 |
| Net income | $61.1M4 | $224.4M5 | $111.1M6 | $96.4M6 | $49.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $216.8M7 | $467.5M8 | $300.9M9 | $471M9 | $14.7M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $129.3M10 | $168.8M11 | $199M12 | $191.3M12 | $98.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $87.5M7 | $298.7M8 | $101.9M9 | $279.7M9 | −$83.7M9 |
| Total debt | $674.1M13 | $497.6M14 | $501M15 | $514.3M16 | $553.5M16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $100.6M17 | $128.8M18 | $133M18 | $276.8M18 | $100.3M18 |
| Diluted shares | 60.2M | 57.6M | 55.3M | 51.2M | 51.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $47.54 of net worth that earned you $9.61 and generated −$16.18 of cash last year, against $107.05 of debt.
It earned about 23% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 14% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 18% — deleveraging.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.32 and $23.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth2.9%
- fcfBase$101.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth2.9%
- fcfBase$101.9M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$96.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $19.39 |
| Base | 2.9% | $23.25 |
| Bull | 7.9% | $30.84 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 2.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004128 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004328 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037819 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004128 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004328 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037819 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004128 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004328 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037819 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004128 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004328 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037819 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005101 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-004128 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004328 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037819 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-004328 (CashAndCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-037819 (CashAndCashEquivalents)