MeritValue

Green Plains Inc.

GPREdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Green Plains Inc. earns about -3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 45% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$86.2M1$78.6M2$136.3M3$163M3$189M3
Net income−$66M4−$127.2M5−$93.4M6−$82.5M6−$121.3M6
Operating cash flow$4.25M7$69.7M8$56.3M9−$30M9$110.9M9
Capital expenditure$187.2M10$212.4M11$108.1M12$95.1M12$37.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$182.9M7−$142.7M8−$51.7M9−$125M9$73.7M9
Total debt$1.28B13$1.14B14$1.1B15$1.01B16$774M16
Cash & equivalents$426.2M17$444.7M18$349.6M19$173M20$182.3M20
Diluted shares46.7M55.5M58.8M63.8M67.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$113.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$17.97
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$114.67

10 shares is a claim on $113.52 of net worth that earned you −$17.97 and generated $10.91 of cash last year, against $114.67 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 -3%FY23 -2%FY24 -3%FY25 -8%

It earned an average -3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+45% shares · 5y

Share count is up 45% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 40% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001309402-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001309402-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001309402-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001309402-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001309402-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001309402-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001309402-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001309402-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001309402-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001309402-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001309402-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001309402-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001309402-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001309402-24-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001309402-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001309402-26-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001309402-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001309402-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001309402-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001309402-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)