MeritValue

GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC

GPNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.23 and $82.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$8.52B1$8.98B2$7.38B3$7.74B3$7.71B3
Net income$965.5M4$111.5M5$986.2M6$1.57B6$1.4B6
Operating cash flow$2.78B7$2.24B8$2.55B9$3.06B9$2.66B9
Capital expenditure$493.2M10$615.7M11$658.1M12$674.9M12$617.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.29B7$1.63B8$1.89B9$2.38B9$2.04B9
Total debt$11.4B13$13.5B14$16.4B15$16.3B16$21.6B17
Cash & equivalents$1.98B18$2B19$2.09B20$2.36B21$8.34B21
Diluted shares293.7M275.6M261.7M254.8M242.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$945.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$57.85
Free cash flow it threw off
$84.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$890.52

10 shares is a claim on $945.79 of net worth that earned you $57.85 and generated $84.25 of cash last year, against $890.52 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 1%FY23 3%FY24 5%FY25 4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 89% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.23 and $82.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$82.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth2.8%
  • fcfBase$2.04B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$81.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth2.8%
  • fcfBase$2.04B
Earnings Power Value
$42.23
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$986.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$110.91
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years2.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $81.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.76
Base2.8%$81.29
Bull7.8%$113.51

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 2.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001123360-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001123360-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001123360-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001123360-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001123360-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001123360-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001123360-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001123360-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001123360-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001123360-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001123360-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001123360-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001123360-22-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001123360-23-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001123360-24-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001123360-25-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001123360-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001123360-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001123360-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001123360-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001123360-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)