MeritValue

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO

GPKdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GRAPHIC PACKAGING HOLDING CO earns about 4% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $18.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.13B1$9.41B2$9.38B3$8.78B3$8.58B3
Net income$204M4$522M5$723M6$658M6$444M6
Operating cash flow$609M7$1.09B8$1.14B9$840M9$841M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$11.7B10$10.4B11$11.3B12$10.3B13$11.5B13
Cash & equivalents$172M14$150M15$162M16$157M17$261M17
Diluted shares297.9M309.5M309.1M305.1M299.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$111.27
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$14.81
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$385.16

10 shares is a claim on $111.27 of net worth that earned you $14.81 last year, against $385.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 5%FY23 6%FY24 5%FY25 3%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$18.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$522M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$19.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408075-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408075-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408075-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408075-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408075-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408075-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408075-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408075-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408075-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408075-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408075-24-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408075-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408075-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001408075-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001408075-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001408075-25-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001408075-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)