MeritValue

GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INC

GPIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

GROUP 1 AUTOMOTIVE INC earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 28% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $356.47 and $449.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$13.5B1$16.2B2$17.9B3$19.9B3$22.6B3
Net income$552.1M4$751.5M5$601.6M6$498.1M6$325.2M6
Operating cash flow$1.26B7$585.9M8$190.2M9$586.3M9$694.5M9
Capital expenditure$143.6M10$155.5M11$185.4M12$245.1M12$270M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.12B7$430.4M8$4.8M9$341.2M9$424.5M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$14.9M13$47.9M14$57.2M15$34.4M16$32.5M16
Diluted shares17.7M15.5M13.7M13.2M12.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,189.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$255.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$333.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2,189.72 of net worth that earned you $255.31 and generated $333.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 34%FY23 23%FY24 17%FY25 12%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−28% shares · 5y

Share count is down 28% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $356.47 and $449.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$356.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$341.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$385.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$341.2M
Earnings Power Value
$449.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$552.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$352.64
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $385.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$385.29
Base0.0%$385.29
Bull5.0%$477.93

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031203-24-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031203-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031203-26-000064 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031203-24-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031203-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031203-26-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031203-24-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031203-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031203-26-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031203-24-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031203-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031203-26-000064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001031203-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001031203-24-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001031203-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001031203-26-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)