MeritValue

GPGI, Inc.

GPGIdata completeness 100%8 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GPGI, Inc. earns about -56% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 17% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.3 and $22.3 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$267.9M1$378.5M2$390.6M3$420.6M3$59.8M3
Net income$3.15M4$18.7M5$19.2M6−$53.7M6−$136M6
Operating cash flow$77.8M7$92.8M8$104.3M9$129.6M9−$22.9M9
Capital expenditure$4.75M10$9.05M11$10.9M12$7.41M12$012
Free cash flow (derived)$73M7$83.7M8$93.4M9$122.1M9−$22.9M9
Total debt$372.5M13$701.6M14$336.5M15$195.6M15$016
Cash & equivalents$21.9M17$13.6M18$41.2M19$77.5M20$114.6M20
Diluted shares94.6M32.6M35.3M44.0M110.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$12.31
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $22 of net worth that earned you −$12.31 and generated −$2.07 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-56% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 -56%

It earned about -56% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+17% shares · 5y

Share count is up 17% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.3 and $22.3 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$22.3
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$93.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.5%
  • fcfBase$93.4M
Earnings Power Value
$0.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$3.15M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.5%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.11
Base8.5%$18.43
Bull13.5%$22.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.5%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823144-24-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823144-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017266 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823144-24-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823144-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017266 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823144-24-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823144-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017266 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823144-24-000002 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823144-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017266 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823144-23-000006 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823144-24-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823144-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017266 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001823144-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001823144-24-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001823144-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017266 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)