MeritValue

GENUINE PARTS CO

GPCdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GENUINE PARTS CO earns about 9% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.26 and $67.28 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$18.9B1$22.1B2$23.1B3$23.5B3$24.3B3
Net income$898.8M4$1.18B5$1.32B6$904.1M6$65.9M6
Operating cash flow$1.26B7$1.47B8$1.44B9$1.25B9$890.8M9
Capital expenditure$266.1M10$339.6M11$512.7M12$567.3M12$469.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$992.1M7$1.13B8$922.9M9$683.9M9$420.9M9
Total debt$4.82B13$6.66B14$7.81B15$8.57B16$9.93B16
Cash & equivalents$714.7M17$653.5M18$1.1B18$480M18$477.2M18
Diluted shares144.2M142.3M141.0M139.7M139.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$317.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$30.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$713.43

10 shares is a claim on $317.63 of net worth that earned you $4.74 and generated $30.23 of cash last year, against $713.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 13%FY23 12%FY24 7%FY25 0%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 106% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.26 and $67.28 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$683.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$2.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$683.9M
Earnings Power Value
$67.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$904.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.33
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $2.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$2.26
Base0.0%$2.26
Bull5.0%$19.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040987-24-000024 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040987-25-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040987-26-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040987-24-000024 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040987-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040987-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040987-24-000024 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040987-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040987-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040987-24-000024 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040987-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040987-26-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040987-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040987-24-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000040987-25-000026 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000040987-26-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000040987-25-000026 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000040987-26-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)