MeritValue

Gossamer Bio, Inc.

GOSSdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gossamer Bio, Inc. earns about -643% on equity, but has diluted owners by 205% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—$01$02$114.7M2$48.5M2
Net income−$234M3−$229.4M4−$179.8M5−$56.5M5−$170.4M5
Operating cash flow−$188.9M6−$187M7−$159.2M8−$3.47M8−$171.3M8
Capital expenditure$1.55M9$410,00010$011$011$79,00011
Free cash flow (derived)−$190.4M6−$187.4M7−$159.2M8−$3.47M8−$171.3M8
Total debt$29.1M12$23.6M13$12.4M14$014—
Cash & equivalents$183.4M15$112M16$32.1M17$46.1M18$37.7M18
Diluted shares74.8M84.6M152.6M226.2M228.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$5.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.5
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on −$5.37 of net worth that earned you −$7.46 and generated −$7.5 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-643% avg · 5y
FY21 -193%FY22 -1899%FY23 -286%FY24 -192%FY25 —

It earned an average -643% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+205% shares · 5y

Share count is up 205% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001728117-25-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001728117-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001728117-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001728117-25-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001728117-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001728117-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001728117-25-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001728117-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001728117-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001728117-25-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001728117-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001728117-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001728117-24-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001728117-25-000021 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001728117-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001728117-24-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001728117-25-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001728117-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)