MeritValue

Alphabet Inc.

GOOGLdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Alphabet Inc. earns about 28% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.42 and $124.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$257.6B1$282.8B2$307.4B2$350B2$402.8B3
Net income$76B4$60B5$73.8B6$100.1B6$132.2B6
Operating cash flow$91.7B7$91.5B8$101.7B9$125.3B9$164.7B9
Capital expenditure$24.6B10$31.5B11$32.3B12$52.5B12$91.4B12
Free cash flow (derived)$67B7$60B8$69.5B9$72.8B9$73.3B9
Total debt$15.4B13$15.3B14$25.9B15$26.2B16$97.6B16
Cash & equivalents$20.9B17$21.9B18$24B19$23.5B20$30.7B20
Diluted shares13.24B13.16B12.72B12.45B12.23B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$339.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$108.07
Free cash flow it threw off
$59.91
Debt you’d be carrying
$79.83

10 shares is a claim on $339.55 of net worth that earned you $108.07 and generated $59.91 of cash last year, against $79.83 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
28% avg · 5y
FY21 31%FY22 24%FY23 26%FY24 31%FY25 27%

It earned about 28% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 532% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.42 and $124.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$124.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.6%
  • fcfBase$72.8B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$107.69
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.6%
  • fcfBase$72.8B
Earnings Power Value
$64.42
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$76B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$90.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $107.69
The three cases
Bear0.0%$79.54
Base6.6%$107.69
Bull11.6%$133.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001652044-24-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001652044-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001652044-26-000018 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001652044-24-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001652044-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001652044-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001652044-24-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001652044-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001652044-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001652044-24-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001652044-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001652044-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001652044-22-000019 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001652044-24-000022 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001652044-25-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001652044-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001652044-23-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001652044-24-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001652044-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001652044-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)