MeritValue

Gogo Inc.

GOGOdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Gogo Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $1,719.94 and $6,984.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$335.7M1$404.1M2$397.6M3$444.7M3$910.5M3
Net income$152.7M4$92.1M5$145.7M6$13.7M6$12.9M6
Operating cash flow$66.7M7$103.4M8$79M9$41.4M9$124.5M9
Capital expenditure$4.26M10$43.9M11$16.3M12$13.5M12$59.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$62.4M7$59.5M8$62.7M9$27.9M9$65.1M9
Total debt$1.63B13$1.41B14$594.8M15$834.1M16$836.1M16
Cash & equivalents$41.8M17$150.6M18$139M17$41.8M17$125.2M17
Diluted shares127,205133,923133,283131,455136,593

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$7,403.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$946.1
Free cash flow it threw off
$4,766.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$61,209.51

10 shares is a claim on $7,403.67 of net worth that earned you $946.1 and generated $4,766.94 of cash last year, against $61,209.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 2%FY22 11%FY23 26%FY24 5%FY25 6%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 49% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1,719.94 and $6,984.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$1,719.94
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$62.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$1,882.91
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.8%
  • fcfBase$62.7M
Earnings Power Value
$6,984.1
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$92.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$38.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $1,882.91
The three cases
Bear0.0%$1,354.48
Base1.8%$1,882.91
Bull6.8%$3,575.89

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039384 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039384 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082487 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039384 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039384 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082487 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-005065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-022040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039384 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082487 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-082487 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-039384 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)