MeritValue

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

GOdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. earns about 1% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $6.59 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$3.08B1$3.58B2$3.97B3$4.37B3$4.69B3
Net income$62.3M4$65.1M5$79.4M6$39.5M6−$224.9M6
Operating cash flow$165.6M7$185.5M8$303.4M9$112M9$222.1M9
Capital expenditure$123.4M10$130.5M11$169M12$186.6M12$198.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$42.2M7$55M8$134.5M9−$74.6M9$23.8M9
Total debt$460M13$759.3M14$585.5M15$955M16$985.8M16
Cash & equivalents$140.1M17$102.7M18$115M19$62.8M20$69.6M20
Diluted shares99.4M100.2M100.8M99.6M98.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$100.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$22.95
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.43
Debt you’d be carrying
$100.61

10 shares is a claim on $100.39 of net worth that earned you −$22.95 and generated $2.43 of cash last year, against $100.61 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 5%FY22 4%FY23 5%FY24 2%FY26 -10%

It earned an average 1% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 114% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$23.8M
Earnings Power Value
$6.59
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001771515-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001771515-25-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001771515-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001771515-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001771515-25-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001771515-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001771515-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001771515-25-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001771515-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001771515-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001771515-25-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001771515-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001771515-22-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001771515-24-000016 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001771515-25-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001771515-26-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0001771515-23-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001771515-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0001771515-25-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0001771515-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)