MeritValue

GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC

GNWdata completeness 88%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

GENWORTH FINANCIAL INC earns about 7% on invested capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.82B1$7.5B2$7.49B3$7.3B3$7.3B3
Net income$850M4$916M5$76M6$299M6$223M6
Operating cash flow$437M7$1.05B7$597M8$88M8$327M8
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$1.9B9$1.61B10$1.58B11$1.52B12$1.51B12
Cash & equivalents$1.57B13$1.8B13$2.22B14$2.05B15$2.04B15
Diluted shares514.7M510.9M474.9M439.4M414.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$211.35
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.39
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$36.55

10 shares is a claim on $211.35 of net worth that earned you $5.39 last year, against $36.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 15%FY23 4%FY24 7%FY25 5%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$7.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$299M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$16.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051772 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041860 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012828 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051772 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041860 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012828 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-053994 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012828 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-053994 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051772 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041860 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012828 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-051772 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-041860 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012828 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)