MeritValue

GENERAC HOLDINGS INC.

GNRCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GENERAC HOLDINGS INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.3 and $160.44 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.74B1$4.56B2$4.02B3$4.3B3$4.21B3
Net income$550.5M4$399.5M5$214.6M6$316.3M6$159.6M6
Operating cash flow$411.2M7$58.5M8$521.7M9$741.3M9$438M9
Capital expenditure$110M10$86.2M11$129.1M12$136.7M12$169.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$301.2M7−$27.7M8$392.6M9$604.6M9$268.1M9
Total debt$955.8M13$1.43B14$1.56B15$1.33B16$1.26B17
Cash & equivalents$147.3M18$132.7M19$201M20$281.3M21$341.4M21
Diluted shares64.3M64.7M62.1M60.4M59.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$444.1
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.23
Debt you’d be carrying
$212.08

10 shares is a claim on $444.1 of net worth that earned you $26.92 and generated $45.23 of cash last year, against $212.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 13%FY23 8%FY24 11%FY25 6%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 32% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.3 and $160.44 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$160.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.2%
  • fcfBase$392.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$125.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.2%
  • fcfBase$392.6M
Earnings Power Value
$55.3
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$316.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$51.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $125.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$79.19
Base9.2%$125.03
Bull14.2%$156.76

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005040 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004353 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004568 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005040 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004353 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004568 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005040 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004353 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004568 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005040 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004353 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004568 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-22-004080 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004153 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005040 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004353 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004568 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004153 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005040 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004353 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-004568 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)