MeritValue

GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD

GNKdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD earns about 9% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.25 and $26.26 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$386.9M1$307.1M1$233.1M1$423M2$342.1M2
Net income$182M3$158.6M4−$12.9M5$76.4M5−$4.37M5
Operating cash flow$231.1M6$189.3M7$91.8M8$126.8M8$31.9M8
Capital expenditure$1.59M9$3.57M10$2.71M11$3M11$3.18M11
Free cash flow (derived)$229.5M6$185.8M7$89.1M8$123.9M8$28.7M8
Total debt$238.2M12$164.9M13$190.2M14$82.2M15$189.1M15
Cash & equivalents$114.6M16$58.1M17$46.5M18$43.7M19$55.5M19
Diluted shares42.6M42.9M42.8M43.7M43.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$206.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.62
Debt you’d be carrying
$43.59

10 shares is a claim on $206.69 of net worth that earned you −$1.01 and generated $6.62 of cash last year, against $43.59 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
9% avg · 5y
FY21 20%FY22 16%FY23 -1%FY24 8%FY25 -0%

It earned about 9% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has fallen 21% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.25 and $26.26 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$24.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$89.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$26.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$89.1M
Earnings Power Value
$18.25
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$76.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $26.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$26.26
Base0.0%$26.26
Bull5.0%$33.37

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001857 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017117 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001857 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001309 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017117 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001857 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001309 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017117 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001857 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001309 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017117 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001781 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001857 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001309 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017117 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001781 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001857 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001309 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-017117 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)