MeritValue

Genie Energy Ltd.

GNEdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Genie Energy Ltd. earns about 71% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $13.87 and $41.83 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$323.3M1$315.5M2$428.7M3$425.2M3$502M3
Net income$29.2M4$87.8M5$52.2M6$35.5M6$24M6
Operating cash flow$68.4M7$80.7M8$62.5M9$70.7M9$46.3M9
Capital expenditure$126,00010$1.02M11$1.36M11$6.7M11—
Free cash flow (derived)$68.3M7$79.7M8$61.1M9$64M9—
Total debt———$9.03M12$8.67M12
Cash & equivalents$93.6M13$98.6M14$159M15$192.8M15$203.5M15
Diluted shares26.3M26.4M26.1M27.2M26.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$94.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.05
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$3.27

10 shares is a claim on $94.56 of net worth that earned you $9.05 last year, against $3.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
71% avg · 5y
FY21 55%FY22 64%FY23 122%FY24 62%FY25 50%

It earned about 71% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $13.87 and $41.83 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$39.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$64M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.83
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$64M
Earnings Power Value
$13.87
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.84
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.83
The three cases
Bear0.0%$41.83
Base0.0%$41.83
Bull5.0%$50.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020226 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-024009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-014294 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020226 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-024009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-014294 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020226 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-024009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-014294 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020226 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-024009 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-014294 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020226 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-024009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-014294 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)