MeritValue

GLOBUS MEDICAL INC

GMEDdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

GLOBUS MEDICAL INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 32% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.28 and $180.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$958.1M1$1.02B2$1.57B3$2.52B3$2.94B3
Net income$149.2M4$190.2M5$122.9M6$103M6$537.9M6
Operating cash flow$276.3M7$178.5M8$243.5M9$520.6M9$753.4M9
Capital expenditure$56.9M10$74M11$78.3M12$115.4M12$164.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$219.4M7$104.4M8$165.2M9$405.2M9$588.8M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$193.1M13$150.5M14$467.3M14$784.4M15$526.2M15
Diluted shares103.6M102.6M114.6M137.9M137.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$333.68
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$39.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$42.96
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $333.68 of net worth that earned you $39.24 and generated $42.96 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 12%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 13%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+32% shares · 5y

Share count is up 32% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.28 and $180.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$180.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$405.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$100.23
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$405.2M
Earnings Power Value
$11.28
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$149.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$54.25
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $100.23
The three cases
Bear0.0%$46.08
Base20.0%$100.23
Bull20.0%$100.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000032 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000026 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011209 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011209 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011209 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000026 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011209 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000026 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011209 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-011209 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)