General Motors Co

GMdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

General Motors Co earns about 17% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 34% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $105.8 and $289.57 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$113.6B1$144B2$157.7B3$171.6B3$168B3
Net income$10B4$9.93B5$10.1B6$6.01B6$2.7B6
Operating cash flow$15.2B7$16B8$20.9B9$20.1B9$26.9B9
Capital expenditure$7.51B10$9.24B11$11B12$10.8B12$9.3B12
Free cash flow (derived)$7.68B7$6.81B8$9.96B9$9.3B9$17.6B9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$20.1B13$19.2B14$18.9B15$19.9B16$20.9B16
Diluted shares1.47B1.45B1.37B1.13B973.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$628.15
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$180.51
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $628.15 of net worth that earned you $27.72 and generated $180.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 25%FY22 20%FY23 22%FY24 14%FY25 7%

It earned about 17% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−34% shares · 5y

Share count is down 34% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $105.8 and $289.57 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$289.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$9.96B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$236.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$9.96B
Earnings Power Value
$105.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.93B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $236.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$167.78
Base9.1%$236.97
Bull14.1%$285.71

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467858-24-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467858-25-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467858-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467858-24-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467858-25-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467858-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467858-24-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467858-25-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467858-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467858-24-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467858-25-000032 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467858-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001467858-23-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001467858-24-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001467858-25-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001467858-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)